Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 89.3%
Prognostiker
18
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet6. Jan. 23, 10:32 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will my friend M accept that he doesn´t annoy me?
Manifold MarketsWhich charities will be recommended by GiveWell at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any Givewell Top Charity get a grant from Project for Awesome 2027?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRegeln
If this question resolves, what is the chance that givewell an organisation has ceased to exist in a form similar to it’s current form?
- This question must actually resolve - it is a question about organisational change, not existential risk.
- This question will still resolve positively if:
- GiveWell becomes part of another organisation
- more than 60% of staff move to a new organisation at once
- if it changes its name.
Offene Märkte
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 30.812 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 18.020,8 €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 8662,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 7665,7 €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15.353,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 952,2 €
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 516,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 516,1 €
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 516,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 516,1 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 136.317,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 419 €
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will GiveWell exist in 2031? (X-risk doesn't count)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 89% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will GiveWell exist in 2031? (X-risk doesn't count) entschieden?
- Will GiveWell exist in 2031? (X-risk doesn't count) soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will GiveWell exist in 2031? (X-risk doesn't count) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If this question resolves, what is the chance that givewell an organisation has ceased to exist in a form similar to it’s current form?