What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description)
TechnikOne-Off1TManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognosesignalis 78.7%Führend unter 34 Optionen
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7
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
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Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet10. Aug. 26, 16:38 UTC10. Sept. 26, 16:38 UTC
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Resolves to my subjective probability of it providing net benefit to my overall goals in expectation in the counterfactual to [the counterfactual where i don't experience it] where the answer is watched at a random time during times where i would have counterfactually have chosen to experience similar media after resolution time with a uniform distribution between Aug 10 and Sep 8 inclusive.
- The duration is important here, since the counterfactual would fill up the time with other stories of the same duration.
- I estimate sum of (probabilities × time spent) = 50-150 hours (total amount of time i will likely spend on these).
- The similar clause is because different times call for different stories.
- Resolution will occur at the resolution date.
- I will N/A all answers that I do not experience before the resolution date.
Offene Märkte
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet signalis mit 79% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) entschieden?
- What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) soll am 10. September 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves to my subjective probability of it providing net benefit to my overall goals in expectation in the counterfactual to [the counterfactual where i don't experience it] where the answer is watched at a random time during times where i would have counterfactually have chosen to experience similar media after resolution time with a uniform distribution between Aug 10 and Sep 8 inclusive.