Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 90.7%
Prognostiker
21
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 19 Stunden
Veraltet18. Apr. 25, 21:07 UTC31. Dez. 50, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will we discover a new, (believed to be) non-composite particle by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill we be able to create or discover something that surpasses the speed of light by 2051?
Manifold Markets“Will we discover definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2030
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRegeln
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2-18b
- Resolves once conclusive evidence comes out either way.
- Perhaps we'll find out that it's not dimethyl sulfide at all, or that there's some abiotic way of creating it that's happening on K2-18b, or we'll find other unrelated signs of life to confirm that it's there.
- Unlike all the other markets about K2-18b, this one stays upon for as long as is necessary to find out for sure.
- So it could be a while, but this is the "real" number, not just "will we find out within a certain number of months".
- (This market is about whether the recent discovery is valid, not about whether there's life at all.)
Offene Märkte
SportsKALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Ben Shelton+49.0pt70.3%
- Carlos Alcaraz-49.0pt29.7%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 21,2 Mio. €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Quarter Finals match
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt59.7%
- Carlos Alcaraz40.3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 459.675,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5,6 Mio. €
POLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz
- Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 9.5+37.5pt100%
- Alcaraz Set 2 Winner+67.5pt100%
- Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 3.5+39.5pt100%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Bayern Munich13.3%
+33 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,6 Mio. €
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R13.9%
- Buffalo6.6%
- Seattle6.6%
+29 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 74 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Alexander Zverev+11.0pt38%
- Ben Shelton+20.0pt28%
- Carlos Alcaraz-37.0pt19%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 25,8 Mio. €
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MVP Winner?
- New England vs Seattle
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Exact Match Score
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Set 3 Winner
- Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Total Games
- 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
- Heisman Trophy Winner
- Barcelona vs Feyenoord
- College Football National Championship Winner
- Counter-Strike: 5star vs TheMongolz (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Did humanity discover life on K2-18b??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 91% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Did humanity discover life on K2-18b? entschieden?
- Did humanity discover life on K2-18b? soll am 31. Dezember 2050 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Did humanity discover life on K2-18b? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2-18b