Conditional on at least 5 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
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Conditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
Manifold MarketsConditional on at least 3 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
Manifold MarketsConditional on at least 8 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
Manifold MarketsConditional on at least 10 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
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The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it.
- The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.
- Similar markets for various amounts of warming:
