Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNo change (65%) 26.8%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet8. Juni 26, 11:28 UTC2. Mai 27, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
SCOTUS takes up same sex marriage case in 2025-2026 or 2026-2027 docket?
Manifold MarketsWill Virginia Question 2 (removing same-sex marriage ban) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
Manifold MarketsWill same-sex marriage be federally guaranteed in the US for all of now through 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any country that has once institutionalized same-sex marriage ban it again before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.7% in November 2026? (inflation) (underlying inflation) (price pressures)?
ForecastExWill the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceed 2.8% in September 2026?
ForecastExRegeln
Each year, Gallup runs a survey asking Americans "Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?" The most recent such poll, run in May 2026, showed support at 65%.
- How much will the results change between then and the May 2027 poll?
- Since 2016, the results have been, in chronological order: 61%, 64%, 67%, 63%, 67%, 70%, 71%, 71%, 69%, 68%, 65%.
- I will not bet on this market.
