Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNo change (65%) 26.8%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
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Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet8. Juni 26, 11:28 UTC2. Mai 27, 03:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
SCOTUS takes up same sex marriage case in 2025-2026 or 2026-2027 docket?
Manifold MarketsWill same-sex marriage be federally guaranteed in the US for all of now through 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any country that has once institutionalized same-sex marriage ban it again before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first Arabic country legalize same-sex marriage?
Manifold MarketsWill the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceed 4% in October 2026? (PCE) (inflation) (Fed inflation gauge)?
ForecastExWill the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceed 1.5% in December 2026?
ForecastExRegeln
Each year, Gallup runs a survey asking Americans "Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?" The most recent such poll, run in May 2026, showed support at 65%.
- How much will the results change between then and the May 2027 poll?
- Since 2016, the results have been, in chronological order: 61%, 64%, 67%, 63%, 67%, 70%, 71%, 71%, 69%, 68%, 65%.
- I will not bet on this market.
