Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNo change (65%) 26.3%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
4
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert8. Juni 26, 11:28 UTC2. Mai 27, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will same-sex marriage be banned in any country that has currently legalized it, before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill same-sex marriage become legal in Vietnam before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill same-sex marriage be federally guaranteed in the US for all of now through 2026?
Manifold MarketsHarry Styles and Zoë Kravitz: Marriage date
KalshiWill the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
ForecastExWill the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
ForecastExRegeln
Each year, Gallup runs a survey asking Americans "Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?" The most recent such poll, run in May 2026, showed support at 65%.
- How much will the results change between then and the May 2027 poll?
- Since 2016, the results have been, in chronological order: 61%, 64%, 67%, 63%, 67%, 70%, 71%, 71%, 69%, 68%, 65%.
- I will not bet on this market.
Offene Märkte
Society & Culture
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt30.3%
- <40-5.5pt12.1%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28.855,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 25.306,6 €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 6760,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5772,3 €
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane95%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Tariff86%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 6133 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5231,4 €
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 18.129,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 989,4 €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15.357,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 952,4 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 136.182,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 247 €
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Change in US support for same-sex marriage, 2026-2027?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No change (65%) mit 26% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Change in US support for same-sex marriage, 2026-2027 entschieden?
- Change in US support for same-sex marriage, 2026-2027 soll am 2. Mai 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Change in US support for same-sex marriage, 2026-2027 abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Each year, Gallup runs a survey asking Americans "Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?" The most recent such poll, run in May 2026, showed support at 65%.