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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Politik
  3. Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)
Manifold Markets

Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)

PolitikOne-OffWahlSportSoccerLatin America1Mon
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsKein KYC
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Manifold Markets
Lula 85.9%
Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker

7

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 5 Tagen

Veraltet
26. Feb. 26, 12:414. Aug. 26, 23:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Lula86%

Regeln

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Manifold Markets
  • Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
  • Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
  • The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
  • If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.

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In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,601.90+2.24%SolanaSOL$65.10+1.51%EthereumETH$1,648.47+1.43%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.63%XRPXRP$1.12+0.15%BNBBNB$594.96+1.59%

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Regeln

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Manifold Markets
  • Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
  • Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
  • The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
  • If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.