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Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)

PolitikOne-OffWahl Sport Soccer Latin America7T

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Lula 96.5%+5.1pt

Führend unter 4 Optionen

Prognostiker

9

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 17 Minuten

26. Feb. 26, 12:414. Aug. 26, 23:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Lula97%

Einsatz (USDT)

Regeln

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.

Volumentrend

$50

14. Juli3T Daten28. Juli

Verwandte Märkte

Brazil Presidential Election

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 64%

Brazil Presidential election winner?

Brazil Presidential election winner?

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

Tarcísio de Freitas: 94%

Bahia Governor Election Winner

Bahia Governor Election Winner

Jerônimo Rodrigues: 51%

Brazil presidential election: first round winner?

Brazil presidential election: first round winner?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 78%

Manifold Markets

Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Bahia (BA)?

MANIFOLD MARKETS

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Regeln

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.