Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva 90%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
3
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+2.9 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet13. Jan. 26, 21:08 UTC4. Okt. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
PolymarketBrazil 2026 Election: Will all third-way candidates stay below 10%?
Manifold MarketsWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
PolymarketBrazil 2026 Election: Who will participate in at least one televised Brazilian presidential debate?
Manifold MarketsBrazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Rio de Janeiro (RJ)?
Manifold MarketsBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- A candidate must receive more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round to win outright.
- If no candidate does so, the top two candidates head to a runoff.
- The first round is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if needed.
- Resolution will be based on official results reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) at https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/.
- A candidate resolves "Yes" if they advance to the runoff or win outright in the first round; otherwise "No".
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 697.653 €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 471.295,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva mit 90% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? entschieden?
- Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? soll am 4. Oktober 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria