Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
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An 'orbit' here is defined as a trajectory on which if no re-entry burn is fired Starship would remain in space for a period of over 24 hours (I don't want to get 'burned' by some sort of wacky sub-orbital flight that still lands at Starbase or in the Atlantic after one circumnavigation.
- I will add an the named outcome if Other is larger than any other option for a non-trivial period of time (and so on, by induction)
- If SpaceX changes the naming convention, for example to OFT, this question will still apply.
- If SpaceX announces before the named outcome that the named outcome will orbit, the named outcome would be the one to resolve YES.
- If they did this I would still wait until before the (eg) #6 flight to check they didn't change it based on what happened in #5
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- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit??
- Manifold Markets bewertet IFT 14 mit 61% (Stand: 21. August 2026).
- Wann wird Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? entschieden?
- Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit? soll am 2. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
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- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: An 'orbit' here is defined as a trajectory on which if no re-entry burn is fired Starship would remain in space for a period of over 24 hours (I don't want to get 'burned' by some sort of wacky sub-orbital flight that still lands at Starbase or in the Atlantic after one circumnavigation.