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Aktualisiert vor 31 Minuten
14. Okt. 25, 19:35 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a significant public opposition to 6G cellular networks rollout when it happens?
Manifold MarketsIs there a significant link between gpt2-chatbot and the firing of Sam Altman?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich bubble bursts first?
MyriadWill the AI-generated Bitcoin song "Chain of Infinite" by Lunr Reverb go viral and reach 1,000,000 streams before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a blockchain‑ (or similar‑technology‑) based decentralized marketplace for buying and selling compute resources achieves “scaled usage” in any 30‑consecutive‑day window ending before January 1, 2031, by meeting at least 3 of the following 5 criteria:
- Money (GMV): Buyer‑to‑provider payments settled by the marketplace’s smart contracts total ≥ $25,000,000 in that 30‑day window (USD‑equivalent at time of settlement).
- Only payments tied to completed/active compute jobs count; pure token swaps, grants, staking rewards, or emissions do not count.
- Delivered compute (FLOP·s, pick one precision class): Aggregate delivered compute (summed across all jobs in the window) is ≥ 1,000 ZFLOP·s at FP16/BF16, or ≥ 2,000 ZFLOP·s at FP8.
- How to measure: For each job, use the vendor‑published peak TFLOP/s for the GPU model at the relevant precision class × job duration (seconds) × the job’s reported average utilization (if available; otherwise assume 100% only if the network provides no lower utilization metric).
- Sum across jobs.
