At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will have a strongly negative opinion of Scott Alexander?
One-OffSociety & Culture3J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 89.2%
Prognostiker
26
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet21. Nov. 22, 15:57 UTC1. Jan. 30, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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KalshiRegeln
Shortly after market close, I will post a poll on Manifold asking "Do you personally believe that Scott Alexander is a highly unethical person, or otherwise have a strongly negative opinion of him?" Three options:
- I don't know enough about him to have a meaningful opinion
- I will resolve this market to the fraction of "Yes" responses / "No" responses.
- The poll will be limited to one response per manifold account, and will be anonymous.
- This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best.
- For an overview and discussion, see here.