Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent]?

Manifold Markets bewertet 5 mit 100% (Stand: 26. Oktober 2026).

Will Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent]

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

5 100%

Führend unter 15 Optionen

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

7d-Änderung

0.0 pts

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden

Veraltet

22. Nov. 23, 17:27 UTC1. Jan. 30, 04:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Regeln

Options resolve YES when Starship has launched that many times and still hasn't launched with at least one human on board.

(e.g. when Starship launches for the fifth time, "5" resolves YES and the other options remain open)
When Starship launches with at least one human on board, all remaining options resolve NO.
If Starship is permanently retired such that no more launches are expected, and it still hasn't flown any humans, all remaining options resolve NO.
Only full-stack (booster and ship) launches count, but they don't have to be orbital launches.
Launches before market creation count, starting with the April 20, 2023 launch.