Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 06.06.2026, 22:25 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-2
Aktuelle Community-Prognosehas it p1 53.6%Führend unter 15 Optionen
Prognostiker
39
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 49 Tagen
Veraltet25. Apr. 26, 21:361. Jan. 27, 0:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
has it p154%
Verwandte Märkte
5% more men than women in the US by 2055?
2651,3 €Ja: 19.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill I burnout by the end of 2026?
2517,1 €Ja: 24.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the linked Aella market resolve YES?
1059 €Ja: 1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Harvard tuition exceed $63,000 in 2026?
527,4 €Ja: 86%FORECASTEX
FORECASTEX
Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
248,4 €Ja: 18%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Major news story in Jul 2026?
194,2 €At least 3: 5%KALSHI
KALSHI
Regeln
Will resolve when there is a great consensus or if there is a definitive answer.
- However, if it takes too long, it will resolve NA.
- Update 2026-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A cheater is known to exist (based on teacher's account), but the identity of the cheater is unknown.
- Update 2026-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): All currently unresolved sub-markets will be resolved N/A in the near future if the cheater is still not caught.
- Update 2026-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any sub-questions about whether the cheater "gets in any kind of trouble" will resolve N/A because the cheater's identity is unknown.
- Update 2026-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve N/A for unresolved options because even if the cheater gets caught and gets in trouble, there is no guarantee anyone will find out — so resolution criteria cannot be met.