KalshiGeschlossenVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlichVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertDieser Markt wurde entschieden: Before Oct 1, 2026 (81%)
Entschieden: 30.09.2026, 17:40
Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.
Gewinnausgang
Before Oct 1, 2026
7 Tage vorher
—
24 Stunden vorher
28%
ÜberraschungWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 30.09.2026, 17:35 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
Before Nov 1, 202667%
Before Oct 1, 202681%
Before Jan 1, 2027Verloren
Before Nov 1, 2026Verloren
Before Oct 1, 2026Gewonnen
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the Vatican State stop its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and establish one with China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?
Manifold MarketsWill China establish a new military base in another country by 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
PolymarketXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Archivierte Regeln auf Ereignisebene. Die genauen Bedingungen für jedes Ergebnis sind nicht mehr verfügbar.
If the governments of the United States and China have formally announced an agreement to establish, or have implemented, a bilateral notification mechanism for AI incidents that could affect national security after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- A qualifying mechanism must be a government-to-government arrangement for notifying the other government about relevant AI incidents; general AI dialogue, shared principles, safety cooperation, or a general hotline without the incident-notification function does not satisfy this topic.
- The mechanism must be expressly described in an official government announcement, agreement text, or qualifying Source Agency report as covering AI incidents with national-security implications.