KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlichVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertMittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
Trump +5 or more · —
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Gespeicherter Preis
Trump +5 or more 98%Führend unter 8 Optionen
Trump +5 or more 98%Marktqualitat
52 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
5,2 €
Open Interest
39.943,8 $
Hohes Open InterestGeld / Brief
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Trump +5 or moreSpread
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Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 31 Minuten
19. Okt. 26, 16:47 UTC15. Dez. 26, 14:59 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Kalshi
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Vorzeitige Schließung:
- Ja
- Abrechnungsfrist:
- 30m (unverbindliche Angabe)
Markttiefe · Trump +5 or more
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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Manifold MarketsWho will win the Pennsylvania State House District 12 general election?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 20 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A district's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of the 2024 presidential vote in that district minus Kamala Harris's share, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections, as shown in the table to one decimal place (the table lists Democratic minus Republican, so reverse its sign). Those margins are fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the table do NOT change them. The margin is negative where Harris won. A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the November 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning January 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats.
Regeln für jedes Ergebnis
- Trump +5 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump +10 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump +15 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 15 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump +18 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 18 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump +20 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 20 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump +22 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump +25 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 25 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump +30 or more
- If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 30 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.