Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jul 2026?

RegulierungOne-OffTrade Policy Politik US Politics Wahl27T

KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr

Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit

Ja 36%

Marktqualitat

49 / 100

Niedrige Qualität

24h-Volumen

0 €

Liquidität

50,5 €

Niedrige Liquidität

Geld / Brief

37.0% / 38.0%

Spread

2.7%

Enger Spread

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 10 Minuten

1. Juli 26, 14:001. Aug. 26, 3:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes36%

Einsatz (USDT)

Regeln

If the President announces a new trade deal before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria:
Made through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances Explicitly describes the arrangement as a "trade deal," "trade agreement," "trade memorandum," "trade pact," or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement Involves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc
Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements.
New arrangements include, but are not limited to:

Verwandte Märkte

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

900,4 €

Ja: 8.7%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?

57,7 €

Ja: 38.3%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Trump order tariffs in Jul 2026?

584,9 €

Ja: 57%

KALSHI

Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?

272,5 €

Critical minerals: 39%

KALSHI

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

1748,6 €

Ja: 13.2%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

5705,8 €

Before 2027: 9%

KALSHI

In diesen Themen aktiv

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Regeln

If the President announces a new trade deal before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria:
Made through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances Explicitly describes the arrangement as a "trade deal," "trade agreement," "trade memorandum," "trade pact," or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement Involves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc
Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements.
New arrangements include, but are not limited to:

Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jul 2026?

RegulierungOne-OffTrade Policy Politik US Politics Wahl27T

KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr

Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit

Ja 36%

Marktqualitat

49 / 100

Niedrige Qualität

24h-Volumen

0 €

Liquidität

50,5 €

Niedrige Liquidität

Geld / Brief

37.0% / 38.0%

Spread

2.7%

Enger Spread

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 10 Minuten

1. Juli 26, 14:001. Aug. 26, 3:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes36%

Einsatz (USDT)

Regeln

If the President announces a new trade deal before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria:
Made through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances Explicitly describes the arrangement as a "trade deal," "trade agreement," "trade memorandum," "trade pact," or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement Involves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc
Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements.
New arrangements include, but are not limited to:

Verwandte Märkte

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

900,4 €

Ja: 8.7%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?

57,7 €

Ja: 38.3%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Trump order tariffs in Jul 2026?

584,9 €

Ja: 57%

KALSHI

Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?

272,5 €

Critical minerals: 39%

KALSHI

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

1748,6 €

Ja: 13.2%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

5705,8 €

Before 2027: 9%

KALSHI

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,866.50+1.26%

EthereumETH$1,788.52+3.11%

SolanaSOL$82.23+1.02%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0786+2.63%

XRPXRP$1.17+4.42%

BNBBNB$576.02+1.75%

Verwandte Nachrichten

Crypto ATM bans, restrictions now in effect in Tennessee and GeorgiaCointelegraph

Europe is rewriting its landmark crypto rulebook MiCA as hard July 1 deadline passesCoindesk

Taiwan Passes Sweeping Crypto Law With Licensing, Stablecoin RulesDecrypt

Last-minute MiCA approvals mark end of EU transition periodCointelegraph

Europe’s MiCA crypto regime is fully in force: Here’s who wins and losesThe Block

Utorg Obtains MiCA License as July 1 Deadline Forces Much of the Industry Out of EuropeBlockchain Reporter

Regeln

If the President announces a new trade deal before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, an announcement must satisfy ALL of the following criteria:
Made through official channels including White House press conferences, official White House statements, presidential speeches, official presidential social media accounts, or official presidential appearances Explicitly describes the arrangement as a "trade deal," "trade agreement," "trade memorandum," "trade pact," or uses substantially similar language indicating a formal trade arrangement Involves at least one foreign country, territory, or international trade bloc
Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
It also includes modifications or re-negotiated versions of previous agreements.
New arrangements include, but are not limited to: