Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
6.0 pts (24h)One-OffPolitikWahlLatin America1J
KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitLula da Silva, 5-10% 33.3%Führend unter 11 Optionen
Marktqualitat
48 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
92,3 €
Liquidität
4361,5 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
21.0% / 28.0%
Spread
7.0 pt
Breiter SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Minuten
23. Apr. 26, 4:004. Okt. 27, 14:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Lula da Silva, 10-15%23%
Plattformen vergleichen· Lula da Silva 5-10%
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBeste insgesamt80% Übereinstimmung · auto | Mittel | 40% | 0pt | 1114,4 € | 144.395,2 € | vor 11 Minuten | Öffnen → |
| KalshiDiese Seite | Niedrig | 34% | -6pt | 92,3 € | 4361,5 € | vor 11 Minuten |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
18.5 pts2Mon
+6.0pt40%
-18.5pt15%
+1.0pt14%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
73 • Mittlere QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen261.383,8 €
24h-Volumen1114,4 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Lula da Silva minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- If Lula da Silva wins, the margin will be positive; if Lula da Silva loses, the margin will be negative; if Lula da Silva ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Lula da Silva runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$1052. Juli26T Daten27. Juli
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If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Lula da Silva minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- If Lula da Silva wins, the margin will be positive; if Lula da Silva loses, the margin will be negative; if Lula da Silva ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Lula da Silva runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.