Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja 15%
Marktqualitat
28 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
69,1 €
Liquidität
1728,7 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
15.0% / 17.0%
Spread
13.3%
Breiter SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute
31. Jan. 26, 15:004. Okt. 27, 14:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Yes15%
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
1.0%3Mon
-0.0%12%
+0.0%88%
56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen70.836 €
24h-Volumen112 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes (50%) to be declared the winner after the first round of the 2026 Brazil Presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
- In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
- In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
- Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
- The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Verwandte Märkte
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
518.942,7 €Gavin Newsom: 21%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Colorado Senate primary margin of victory?
507.645,9 €John Hickenlooper, ≥9%: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
Presidential Election Winner 2028
384.518,4 €JD Vance: 20%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
309.364,4 €Michelle Obama: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
Brazil Presidential Election
270.127,3 €Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 61%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
133.213,2 €Tucker Carlson: 2%KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
Verwandte Nachrichten
Ripple, Coinbase among top donors in crypto’s $189 million election spending: reportThe Block
Democrats ramp up election-integrity push as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5%Blockchain.News
Colorado Dem upset jolts 2028 chatter as Polymarket puts Newsom at 20.5%Blockchain.News
Colorado primary surprise as Polymarket keeps Maduro favored at 80%Blockchain.NewsColorado primaries spotlight risk as Polymarket puts Starmer exit odds at 93.5%Blockchain.News
Ripple-backed PACs fuel record $189M crypto election spendingCrypto NewsRegeln
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes (50%) to be declared the winner after the first round of the 2026 Brazil Presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
- In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
- In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
- Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
- The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.