KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitAt least 4bps 79%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Marktqualitat
24 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
0 €
Liquidität
786 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
74.0% / 80.0%
Spread
8.1%
Breiter SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Minuten
21. Juni 26, 14:0029. Juli 26, 20:14
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
At least 4bps79%
Volumentrend
$348. Juli11T Daten25. Juli
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
7,4 €4.5%: 100%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
0 €Ja: 11%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US Treasury 10-year yield on July 31?
0 €4.55 or more: 51%FUTUUR
FUTUUR
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
80 €4.0%: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?
0 €Ja: 6%KALSHI
KALSHI
Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
0 €Exactly 1.50%: 0%KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
Verwandte Nachrichten
Hong Kong to Reopen RMB Bonds with Tender on July 23, 2026Blockchain.News
Polymarket odds put July Fed no-change at 96% as $65M tradesBlockchain.News
Polymarket odds: Fed July hold jumps to 95% after Bitcoin breaks $65KBlockchain.News
Bitcoin climbs above $65K as weak PPI rattles Fed hawksCrypto NewsPolymarket odds tilt to Sept Fed hold at 61.5% after Warsh testimonyBlockchain.NewsPolymarket odds for 2026 Fed hike fall to 52.5% as traders trim betsBlockchain.NewsRegeln
If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 4bps, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The relevant series is the Federal Reserve’s H.15 “Market Yield on U.S.
- Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis.” H.15 is normally posted at 4:15 PM ET each business day.
- The move will be calculated as |July 29, 2026 value - July 28, 2026 value| × 100.
- For example, a move from 4.05% to 4.17% equals 12 basis points.
- If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 6bps, then the market resolves to Yes.