FutuurVerfügbarkeit prüfenVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Robert Menendez 12%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Robert Menendez 12%Marktqualitat
26 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
1331,8 €
Niedrige LiquiditätTrader
16
Kommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Trump pardons or commutes Ghislaine Maxwell?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump pardons Barron Trump?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump pardons Barron Trump?
Manifold MarketsTrump pardons Diddy
Manifold MarketsBitcoin 100k before Election day?
Manifold MarketsPolymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This event predicts whether Donald J. Trump will grant executive clemency to the individuals listed on the markets on or before December 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC.
- For the purposes of this event, executive clemency includes either a presidential pardon or a commutation of sentence exercised under Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is an official act of clemency issued by the President of the United States and recorded by the White House or the U.S. Department of Justice.
- If official records are delayed, unavailable, or ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear and consistent consensus reported by reputable U.S. news organizations citing authenticated government sources.
- These markets will be resolved according to the substantive outcome—whether the individual is granted a pardon or commutation—rather than minor technicalities of announcement timing or formatting.
- If no fair determination is possible by the end of the Market Period, Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation.
