Güncel topluluk tahmini
The Grand Budapest Hotel 71.7%21 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
24
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+1.3 pts
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis25 Ağu 26 03:08 UTC31 Ara 30 18:53 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
Films resolve YES if I see them and award them with a Like, which almost always happens if and only if I give 4+ stars (there has been one exception that got a 4.0 and no like.)
- Films resolve NO if I see them and do not award them with a Like, which almost always implies 3.5 or fewer stars.
- Films resolve NO if I have enough information that I am 90%+ confident they would resolve NO AND 90%+ confident that I would have be rather forced into seeing them or finishing them.
- Films I am 95%+ confident I will not see by Dec 1, 2030 unless forced to, but where I am insufficiently confident to resolve NO, will resolve to a percentage I think is fair, by default market price but if I think it's wrong I will override.
- I plan to edit/refine from here as I go if this proves interesting, or to stop paying new bounties if this proves too fiddly or otherwise not worth it, but here goes:
- Bounties (size TBD, but minimum full refund of market costs for fully marginal cases, scaling much higher for higher value finds I would have otherwise missed) will be paid for non-obvious films that get 3.5+ stars I would have otherwise not seen, scaling higher for more stars, and as the answer becomes less obvious, if you suggest a film via question creation, or for movies that get 4+ stars that are non-obvious even if it turns out I've already seen them, so long as you had no easy way of knowing that.
Açık piyasalar
Sports
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Ben Shelton+36.0pt57.4%
- Carlos Alcaraz-36.0pt42.6%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Quarter Finals match
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt59.7%
- Carlos Alcaraz40.3%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺25,9 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺316,4 Mn
POLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz
- Alcaraz Set 3 Winner+67.5pt100%
- Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 9.5+37.5pt100%
- Alcaraz Set 2 Winner+67.5pt100%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Bayern Munich13.3%
+33 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,4 Mr
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R13.9%
- Buffalo6.6%
- Seattle6.6%
+29 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺4,2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺107,3 Mn
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Alexander Zverev+11.0pt39%
- Ben Shelton+19.0pt27%
- Carlos Alcaraz-31.0pt25%
+45 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,5 Mr
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MVP Winner?
- New England vs Seattle
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Exact Match Score
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Set 3 Winner
- Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Total Games
- 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
- Heisman Trophy Winner
- Barcelona vs Feyenoord
- College Football National Championship Winner
- Counter-Strike: 5star vs TheMongolz (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will Zvi Mowshowitz 'like' each of these movies? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla The Grand Budapest Hotel için 72% fiyatlıyor.
- Will Zvi Mowshowitz 'like' each of these movies? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will Zvi Mowshowitz 'like' each of these movies? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2030.
- Will Zvi Mowshowitz 'like' each of these movies? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Films resolve YES if I see them and award them with a Like, which almost always happens if and only if I give 4+ stars (there has been one exception that got a 4.0 and no like.)