Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 72.9%
Tahminciler
12
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis29 Eki 23 02:14 UTC2 Oca 30 06:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
ForecastExKurallar
To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that I believe qualify as wild-animal-welfare grants, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.
- See this EA Forum tag for a definition of "Wild animal welfare" as a cause area.
- For the purposes of this question, fishing-related interventions are considered farmed-animal welfare.
- "EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel.
- This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.
- For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like farmed-invertebrate welfare and climate geoengineering!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!
Açık piyasalar
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+70.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-26.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺33,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺32,2 Mn
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+40.0pt99%
- Houston+68.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+12.0pt99%
+19 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+56.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-4.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-47.0pt1%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+63.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-47.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-9.0pt1%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+49.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-37.0pt1%
- 88° to 89°-7.0pt1%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes98%
- No2%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺6,1 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺6,1 Mn
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 86 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 87 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 89 F on September 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 88 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 73% fiyatlıyor.
- Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2030.
- Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that I believe qualify as wild-animal-welfare grants, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.