Will we learn that somebody started/extended a wildfire to win money on a prediction market before September 2027
Hava DurumuOne-Off10ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 77.6%
Tahminciler
4
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
13 dakika önce güncellendi
19 Tem 26 15:57 UTC31 Ağu 27 23:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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KalshiKurallar
Must be real money prediction markets.
- Based on credible reporting, does not need to be a conviction.
- Conspiring with others to start a fire, bribing someone to start the fire for you etc. is enough to resolve YES, if it results in an intentional fire.
- Actively helping an existing fire to spread, including making it difficult for firefighters or other services to respond to the fire appropraitely (or conspiring to do it) is also enough to resolve YES.
- Inaction is by itself not enough to resolve YES.
- Partly subjective resolution, won't bet on this market.