Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?
One-OffHealth & Medicine3yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 54.1%
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14
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
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11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis2 Kas 23 21:12 UTC2 Oca 30 07:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will there be a year without polio before 2030?
KalshiWill there be a case of paralysis or death attributed to polio in the USA before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill New World screwworm (maggots that eat animals alive) be effectively eradicated from the wild by 2030?
Manifold MarketsCyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
KalshiHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiTotal cases of measles reported in US during 2026
Manifold MarketsKurallar
By default I will use the numbers provided by the GPEI.
- Note that this is not equivalent to polio eradication by 2030 - we can have a year without cases either by skipping years or through poor observation, for instance.
- It is also specifically wild polio - I am not counting vaccine derived polio cases.
- At market creation the number for 2023 is 10.
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 54% fiyatlıyor.
- Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2030.
- Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: By default I will use the numbers provided by the GPEI.
