Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 82.2%
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26
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
17 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Şub 24 15:26 UTC1 Oca 30 22:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than October 7th before 2030
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PolymarketKurallar
Doesn't necessarily have to kill anyone, but should have substantial shock value through destruction of property or similar (i.e. significantly above the current gluing-to-things protests).
- Shorter-term version:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Thomas42/will-there-be-a-terrorist-attack-mo)Terrorism is notoriously ill-defined.
- For this market I define it as the intentional use of violence to achieve a political goal, in this case a goal related to climate change.
- So actually blowing up a refinery is violence and counts, but sabotaging by drilling a hole in a pipe is not.