Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 82%
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Gecikmeli31 Mar 26 16:22 UTC30 Haz 27 04:00 UTC
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Will the KIA-China rare earth trade have suffered a 30+ day halt by December 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the KIA-China rare earth trade have suffered a 30+ day halt by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Myanmar junta have conducted airstrikes on Kachin rare earth mining sites by June 30, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Myanmar junta have conducted airstrikes on Kachin rare earth mining sites by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
This market resolves YES if, by June 30, 2027, all Kachin State border crossings have been closed to rare earth trade for 30+ consecutive days due to a breakdown in the KIA-China commercial relationship.
- YES if by June 30, 2027:
- All Kachin border crossings closed to RE trade for 30+ consecutive days
- Closure caused by KIA-China diplomatic/commercial breakdown (not weather/logistics)
- No 30+ day consecutive halt has occurred by June 30, 2027
- Any closures were shorter than 30 days or caused by non-commercial factors
