Will the Fake Dan Sullivan Effect the Results of the Alaska Senate Election?
PolitikaOne-OffABD SiyasetiSeçim2026 ABD Ara Seçimleri30g
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 77.1%
Tahminciler
10
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli29 Eki 26 05:44 UTC1 Ara 26 05:00 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Impostor Dan Sullivan finish third in the Alaska Senate election?
Manifold MarketsWill Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExSullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?
PolymarketWill Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s vote total exceed Peltola's winning margin in Alaska's Senate race?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market is binary and resolves based on whether the presence of candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. demonstrably changes the winner of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate general election according to official tabulated results from the Alaska Division of Elections.
- Specifically, the market will resolve to YES if the following conditions is satisfied:
- Ranked-Choice / Margin Outcome: Incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan does not win the election, AND the total first-choice votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. exceed the final margin of victory between the winning candidate and Dan S. Sullivan
- If incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan wins re-election, or if Mary Peltola (or another challenger) wins by a margin greater than the total first-choice votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. without an election reversal via court order, the market will resolve to NO.
- Note: The market creator may modify or clarify the numerical threshold or specific counterfactual definition before election day.
