Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıEski veriler
31 Eki 2026 03:24 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 59.6%
Evet 59.6%Tahminciler
20
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
1 dakika önce güncellendi
2 Şub 24 05:44 UTC2 Oca 50 07:59 UTC
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Kurallar
Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 2.0°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2050
- Resolves negative otherwise
- https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
- If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
- The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision measured.
- So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 2.01°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 2.0°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.
