Will the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050? için güncel oranlar nedir?

Manifold Markets, 29 Ekim 2026 itibarıyla No için 93.6% fiyatlıyor.

Will the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?

Will the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2050.

Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibre

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Hayır 93.6%

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Soru türü

binary

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

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Tahmin

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1 saat önce güncellendi

Gecikmeli

2 Şub 24 18:28 UTC2 Oca 50 07:59 UTC

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Kurallar

Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 3.5°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2050

Resolves negative otherwise
https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision measured.
So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 3.51°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 3.50°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.