Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 60%
Tahminciler
29
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
12 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis4 Oca 24 02:01 UTC2 Oca 32 06:59 UTC
Trendler
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KalshiKurallar
Of launches carrying non-dummy payloads, whether SpaceX internal payloads such as Starlink satellites or customer payloads, will the first 500 launches have a 99% success rate or higher? That is, will at least 495 of them deliver their payload to the intended destination?
- IFT-1 and IFT-2 do not qualify, so the count has not started yet.
- Future "test launches" will be counted or not based on whether they carried a payload intended for some useful application.
- (The Falcon Heavy test launch would not be included under this definition.) Cargo, crew, and propellant cargo for refueling missions will all be included.
- Accidents resulting in complete loss of payload during pre-launch operations (eg AMOS-6) will count as failures for this count.
- If the SpaceX Starship is retired before this question resolves, it will resolve based on whether the success rate at retirement is >= 99%.
Açık piyasalar
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+3 daha fazla sonuç
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+19 daha fazla sonuç
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+3 daha fazla sonuç
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 60% fiyatlıyor.
- Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2032.
- Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Of launches carrying non-dummy payloads, whether SpaceX internal payloads such as Starlink satellites or customer payloads, will the first 500 launches have a 99% success rate or higher? That is, will at least 495 of them deliver their payload to the intended destination?