Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]
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"Solar geoengineering" as defined by the IPCC includes any/all forms of solar radiation management (SRM), most notably stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) and marine cloud brightening (MCB) but also cirrus cloud thinning or orbital mirror deployment (lol).
- Notably, this does not include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies such as direct-air capture (DAC), biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS), enhanced weathering (EWR), ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE), or other techniques that simply reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.
- The IPCC definition of solar geoengineering also (somewhat contentiously) does not include surface albedo enhancement (e.g. painting rooftops white).
- "Significant scale" here is somewhat arbitrarily defined as having an estimated net decrease in radiative forcing of at least 1 W/m2 for at least one month (about a ~0.4% increase in planetary albedo).
- This would correspond to a net sulfur injection of about 5 Mt/y for the most commonly discussed SAI technique -- about 0.25 Pinatubos per year.
- I will not bet in this market.
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description] için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 68% fiyatlıyor.
- Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description] ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description] için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2030.
- Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description] nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: "Solar geoengineering" as defined by the IPCC includes any/all forms of solar radiation management (SRM), most notably stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) and marine cloud brightening (MCB) but also cirrus cloud thinning or orbital mirror deployment (lol).
