Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 71.8%
Tahminciler
26
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
16 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis1 Ağu 26 14:44 UTC31 Ara 29 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Situational Awareness raises new capital by which date?
PolymarketSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
PolymarketWill Situational Awareness LP raise fresh capital after its July 2026 unwind?
Manifold MarketsWill Citadel start a prediction market making desk by the midterms?
Manifold Markets$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketCalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
KalshiKurallar
[tweet]Resolves per net AUM (investor capital, not regulatory/leveraged AUM), matching the tweet's intent.
- Compares Situational Awareness (incl. renames/successors managing substantially the same funds) vs. Citadel Advisors.
- Citadel Securities is a market maker with no AUM and doesn't factor in.
- Uses the latest figure for each firm dated on or before Dec 31, 2029, from company statements, regulatory filings, or credible financial press (Bloomberg/FT/WSJ/Reuters); both figures must be within 12 months of each other.
- If a net AUM figure is unavailable for either firm, Form ADV regulatory AUM is used for both.
- YES iff SA's figure strictly exceeds Citadel's.
Açık piyasalar
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M97%
- $25M94%
- $50M87%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺14,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺14,5 Mn
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+5.0pt54.5%
- 65-89+11.0pt37.6%
- 90-114+2.0pt5%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt77.7%
- Apple+0.5pt13.6%
- Alphabet6.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.1pt97%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet+0.1pt1%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-19918.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt17.8%
- 160-17913.9%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺10,3 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2,3 Mn
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3
- What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit Week of September 7 2026?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 72% fiyatlıyor.
- Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2029.
- Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: [tweet]Resolves per net AUM (investor capital, not regulatory/leveraged AUM), matching the tweet's intent.