Will "Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffYZ1yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 81.3%
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will "My picture of the present in AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "How My Students Think About AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040 is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+55.0pt66%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
- claude-opus-5-high4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺7,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,7 Mn
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.2pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt25%
- Grok-2.0pt6.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺510,9 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt89%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+24.0pt76%
- 2027+21.0pt44%
- 2026+6.0pt12%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+2.0pt78%
- ChatGPT+3.0pt13.8%
- Grok2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺18,1 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt68%
- 1490+-4.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.5pt30%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will "Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 81% fiyatlıyor.
- Will "Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will "Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Şubat 2028.
- Will "Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.