Will Republicans have low turnout of voters in 2026 midterms? için güncel oranlar nedir?

Manifold Markets, 19 Ekim 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 50% fiyatlıyor.

Will Republicans have low turnout of voters in 2026 midterms? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?

Will Republicans have low turnout of voters in 2026 midterms? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 14 Kasım 2026.

Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibre

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Evet 50%

Tahminciler

Soru türü

binary

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

30 dakika önce güncellendi

15 Eki 26 07:38 UTC14 Kas 26 23:00 UTC

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Kurallar

Resolution criteria

Because the prompt does not define a specific numeric threshold, baseline election year for comparison (e.g., relative to 2018 or 2022 turnout), or specific data source, the market creator should update these criteria to establish the specific benchmark for "low turnout" before the election.
If no specific threshold is set by the creator, this market will resolve to YES if official voter file analyses or reputable election data sources—such as the UF Election Lab or the U.S. Census Bureau's voting survey—indicate that turnout among self-identified Republicans or registered Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections fell below recent historical midterm baselines (e.g., 2018 and 2022).
Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
Voter participation in U.S. midterm elections is measured as a percentage of the Voting-Eligible Population (VEP) or registered voters.
Party-specific turnout rates are typically evaluated post-election using state-level voter registration files, validated voter surveys, or exit polling data.