Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 82.6%
Tahminciler
15
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
4 dakika önce güncellendi
30 Tem 26 13:44 UTC1 Oca 27 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketWill Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?
Manifold MarketsWill the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketWill the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Friedrich Merz is the official Federal Chancellor (Bundeskanzler) of Germany at any point on January 1, 2027, according to official government sources.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- The primary source of truth for this market will be the official portal of the Federal Chancellor (https://www.bundeskanzler.de) or the Federal Government of Germany (https://www.bundesregierung.de).
- In the event of a delay in updating these websites, credible international news outlets (such as Deutsche Welle, Reuters, or Bloomberg) will be used to verify who holds the office on that date.
- Note on acting chancellors: If Friedrich Merz is serving as an acting (geschäftsführender) Chancellor on January 1, 2027 (e.g., following a vote of no confidence or the collapse of a coalition), this market will still resolve to YES, provided he has not officially stepped down or been replaced by a successor sworn in by the Federal President.
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 83% fiyatlıyor.
- Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2027.
- Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria