Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 88.6%
Tahminciler
13
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Nis 26 15:33 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Laura Loomer’s terrorist attack prediction be correct?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a terrorist attack, shooting, or another mass casualty incident at a gaming event in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, there is an official determination by the U.S. government—specifically the Department of Justice, the Department of Homeland Security, or the Office of the Director of National Intelligence—that a fatal attack carried out on U.S. soil was planned, directed, or materially supported by the government of Iran or an Iranian state-backed entity.
- For the purposes of this market, "U.S. soil" is defined as the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. territories.
- If no such official determination is made, or if an attack occurs but is attributed solely to independent actors without proof of Iranian state sponsorship as defined above, the market will resolve to "No."
- The question of Iranian involvement in attacks on U.S. soil involves complex assessments by the U.S. intelligence community regarding the distinction between Iranian-backed proxy groups and direct operations by state security apparatuses, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
- The U.S. government has historically documented efforts by Iran to target dissidents and officials within the United States, often utilizing criminal networks or third-party actors.
Açık piyasalar
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺18,1 Mn
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-15.0pt62%
- September 11-18.5pt50%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺391 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺8,6 Mn
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 89% fiyatlıyor.
- Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria