Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 56.2%
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3
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis18 Haz 26 22:58 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?
Manifold MarketsWill @AidanFitzzz finally write his great american novel by EOY2031
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketHighest grossing movie in 2026?
Polymarket# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
PolymarketNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiKurallar
I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years.
- As of the creation of this market, I have written about 131k words (roughly 580 pages), and I estimate that I am about 90% done, but I think any novelist would tell you that these kinds of estimates are tricky.
- Progress has slowed to a crawl since my second child was born last October, but I am determined to finish it.
- Resolves YES if the final chapter is completed by December 31st, 2026 Otherwise Resolves NO
- Some useful context:
- I have finished four first drafts of previous novels, ranging in length from ~60k to ~120k words.
Açık piyasalar
EntertainmentKALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺10,1 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,1 Mn
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+6.5pt73.3%
- 940 - 950m-5.5pt22.8%
- 970m++0.6pt2%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+15.0pt57%
- Jack Barton-13.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-10.0pt16%
+27 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺102,2 Mn
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+29.4pt51.4%
- No Bond chosen-3.9pt18.1%
- Jack Barton-4.5pt7.6%
+21 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-58.0pt16%
- Above 50-61.0pt4%
- Above 55-51.0pt2%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺4,6 Mn
KALSHIOscar Winner: Best Picture
- The Odyssey-3.0pt39.2%
- Dune: Part Three-1.0pt9.6%
- The Black Ball-1.0pt8.8%
+35 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺238,3 Mn
- Big Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 56% fiyatlıyor.
- Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years.