Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiJoe Biden 46.4%
Tahminciler
25
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+6.4 pts
Piyasa verileri
5 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis18 Haz 24 13:00 UTC19 Oca 29 22:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.
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PolymarketKurallar
Both Biden and Trump get criticized for being quite old.
- This, among other problems, brings an increased risk for death from natural causes.
- The male life expectancy in the USA is 73.5 years, an age they both passed already.
- What is the chance they pass away from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
- This market resolves per person to YES once they die of natural causes, NO if they die from non natural causes, and NO if they are alive on the end of the next presidential term (20th of January 2029), whichever comes first.
