Will another UN member state leader holds any other UN state leader or former leader in captivity in 2026?
ABD SiyasetiOne-OffLatin Amerika2ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 76.7%
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9
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
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2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis5 Oca 26 02:05 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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excluding Trump holding Maduro, will there be another one this year?
- Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on pairwise combinations of captors and captives:
- If the same leader holds multiple different leaders captive, each new pairing counts as a separate instance
- If a successor to a previously captured leader is held (and sufficiently well-established), that counts as a new instance
- Holding former leaders (e.g., former U.S. presidents) also counts
- Capturing multiple subordinates or acting officials under one regime does not clearly satisfy the criteria
