Will a global internet outage affect at least 25% of internet users for 24 consecutive hours before 2030?
One-OffTeknoloji3yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
26 Eki 2026 05:41 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahminiHayır 85.6%
Tahminciler
1
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Eki 26 16:21 UTC31 Ara 29 23:59 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
This market resolves YES if, before 1 January 2030 at 00:00 UTC, a single global internet disruption prevents at least 25% of the world's internet users from accessing the public internet for at least 24 consecutive hours.
- Resolution criteria
- - The disruption must affect at least 25% of the estimated global internet-user population simultaneously for 24 consecutive hours.
- - Outages may result from cyberattacks, infrastructure failures, power-grid failures, government actions, or other causes.
- - Localised outages, individual website failures, social media disruptions, and slow connections do not qualify unless the global threshold is met.
- - The disruption must be supported by credible evidence from organisations such as Cloudflare Radar, NetBlocks, Internet Society, or comparable independent network-monitoring sources.
