Will a California State entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?

Manifold Markets, 29 Ekim 2026 itibarıyla No için 92% fiyatlıyor.

Will a California State entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibre

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Hayır 92%

Tahminciler

Soru türü

binary

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

26 dakika önce güncellendi

31 Oca 23 06:42 UTC1 Oca 28 07:59 UTC

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Kurallar

The account cannot be owned by a person who works for the state of California - the government entity itself must own it.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.