Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
SpaceX 56%3 seçenek arasında lider
SpaceX 56%Tahminciler
10
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
18 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis23 Nis 26 10:54 UTC30 Ara 32 23:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWill Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX or Blue Origin conduct or be contracted to conduct a private lunar landing before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a state which is not the US contract SpaceX or Blue Origin to conduct a lunar landing before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhich crewed vehicle will be next to land humans on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsBlue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
As of April 2026, SpaceX and the named outcome are NASA's two contracted Human Landing System (HLS) providers for the Artemis program.
- SpaceX holds the Artemis III contract (Starship HLS, mid-2027 target, now reconfigured as an Earth-orbit test).
- the named outcome holds the Artemis V contract (Blue Moon Mark 2, ~2030).
- In October 2025, then-acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy reopened the Artemis III landing contract amid Starship HLS delays, and the named outcome is reportedly developing a "Mark 1.5" crewed variant based on Blue Moon Mark 1 that could potentially fly sooner.
- This market resolves based on which company's lander first carries at least one human to a soft landing on the lunar surface, whether on a NASA Artemis mission, a commercial mission, or any other flight.
- Resolution criteria: