Which will be the first year that China successfully launches more orbital rockets than the USA?
ÇinOne-Off2ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
26 Eki 2026 00:26 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahminiNot before 2040 54.3%7 seçenek arasında lider
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6
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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7g Değişim
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17 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis28 Kas 25 04:10 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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Resolves according to Gunter's Space Page
- Note that the provided linked counts failed launches as well, I am more than open to using a better source.
- My plan atm is just to work out the discrepancy by hand if and when it looks close.
- https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau2025.htm
- Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve to the first year after 2025 in which China successfully launches more orbital rockets than the USA.
- (China had more launches during 2018-2021, so those years are excluded from consideration.)
