Güncel topluluk tahmini
Reform 40%5 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
18
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+4.8 pts
Piyasa verileri
35 dakika önce güncellendi
28 Nis 26 09:13 UTC31 Ara 26 10:06 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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Manifold MarketsKurallar
For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.
- This market resolves YES for whichever party next moves into a clear second place by polling >=5% above every party other than whichever party is in first place, for a period of 14 consecutive days in the Politico Poll of Polls.
- If no party achieves a decisive second place by market close then this will resolve Other.
- If any other party approaches the second place zone I will add them as their own option, i.e. buying Other today will cover you for e.g. the Lib Dems approaching second place.
- Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there is a 4-way tie with no clear second place, the market will not resolve until market close, at which point it resolves Other.
- If two parties are both clearly 5% above the rest but close to each other, the creator will keep the market open until one party clearly takes second place.
Açık piyasalar
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt19%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+48 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺62 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺98,6 Mn
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+4.1pt53%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-3.0pt45%
- Renan Santos+0.4pt2%
+16 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-3.1pt34%
- Édouard Philippe-2.0pt28%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%
+38 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Fraud+70.0pt99%
- Trillion+61.0pt99%
- Transgender+62.0pt99%
+36 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.4pt17%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt4%
+39 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party85%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,5 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺28,7 Mn
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Florida Governor winner?
- Next Prime Minister of Sweden
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 11 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Reform için 40% fiyatlıyor.
- Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.