Manifold MarketsKapalıKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreBu piyasa sonuçlandı: Opus (99%)
Sonuçlandı: 24 Tem 2026 17:03
Sağlayıcı tarafından doğrulanmış sonuç
CoinRithm bu piyasa için kazanan ve sonuçlanma zamanı konusunda sağlayıcı destekli kanıta sahip.
Güncel topluluk tahminiOpus 99%+7.1pt5 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
23
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
27 gün önce guncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Tem 26 4:3224 Tem 26 17:03
Olasılık Zaman Çizelgesi
Opus99%
Haiku0.4%
Mythos0.2%
A previously unreleased tier under a new name0.2%
A new checkpoint of Fable or Sonnet with updated version number (e.g. 5.1)0.2%
99%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Kurallar
— The model must be released publicly to qualify, i.e. if Opus 5 gets a limited release (similar to what's been going on with Mythos and GPT-5.6) followed by a GA release of Haiku, the latter will be considered as having been released first.
- — The existing version(s) of Mythos will qualify if released into general access before any other qualifying model.
- — Any 4.x versions, in case Anthropic decides to continue that branch for some reason, will not qualify.
- The most recent release as of this market's creation date is Sonnet 5, which is the third release in the Claude 5 series following Mythos 5 and Fable 5.
