Güncel topluluk tahmini
Not by 2030 60.6%7 seçenek arasında lider
Not by 2030 60.6%Tahminciler
13
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+0.6 pts
Piyasa verileri
16 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis5 Oca 25 08:35 UTC1 Oca 31 12:59 UTC
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Wins Nobel Prize in Literature before 2030
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Manifold MarketsWill an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?
Manifold MarketsNational Book Award for Translated Literature
KalshiNational Book Award for Young People's Literature
KalshiKurallar
Mircea Cărtărescu is a renowned Romanian novelist, poet, and essayist who has been consistently mentioned as a top contender for the Nobel Prize in Literature.
- He was among the favorites for the 2024 prize and continues to be considered a strong candidate for future awards.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to the year in which Mircea Cărtărescu wins the Nobel Prize in Literature.
- If he wins the prize in any year from 2025 through 2030, the corresponding year option will resolve as YES, with all other options resolving as NO.
- If he does not win the prize by the end of 2030, "the named outcome" will resolve as YES, with all other options resolving as NO.
