Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminibefore Sep 30, 2027 77.2%13 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
8
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis15 Ara 25 19:28 UTC31 Ara 28 23:59 UTC
Trendler
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
When will Gavin Newsom announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce her run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Mark Kelly announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsJosh Shapiro margin of victory
KalshiWill Josh Shapiro win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill Josh Shapiro win the Pennsylvania general election for Governor in 2026?
ForecastExKurallar
Resolution criteria
- For each answer, resolve YES if Josh Shapiro makes an official public announcement that he is running for U.S. president in the 2028 election on or before that answer’s cutoff; resolve NO otherwise. “before [date]” is treated as on or before 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on that date.
- e.g. if the announcement occurs on Dec 15, 2027, the "the named outcome" AND "the named outcome" options resolve YES.
- Acceptable evidence (use the earliest timestamp across sources):
- FEC Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) filed for a 2028 presidential run.
- An explicit statement by Shapiro or an authorized spokesperson that he is running for president in 2028 (e.g., on his verified social accounts or official site).
Açık piyasalar
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺39,1 Mn
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.8pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34 Mr
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.2pt3%
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt14.1%
+45 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺10,3 Mr
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 daha fazla sonuç
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Sık sorulan sorular
- When will Josh Shapiro announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla before Sep 30, 2027 için 77% fiyatlıyor.
- When will Josh Shapiro announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- When will Josh Shapiro announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2028.
- When will Josh Shapiro announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria