Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Never or after or including 2045 63.4%6 seçenek arasında lider
Never or after or including 2045 63.4%Tahminciler
44
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multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
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15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis24 Oca 24 07:28 UTC1 Oca 46 12:59 UTC
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KalshiKurallar
• The date will be the date of the release of the pathogen, not the date when it causes the deaths.
- This may require a delay in the resolution of the market.
- Similarly, establishing the cause of such a pandemic may require some delay to the resolution of the market. • Market will be resolved according to official deaths (even though there are known issues with these figures)
- • Whether an incident was AI-assisted or not will be resolved based upon on an official government investigation into the incident.
- Claims from a government that is unreliable will be disregarded. • I just realised that I didn't actually manage to make the years unambiguous.
- So the period 2030-2035 includes 2030, but ends at the start of 2035. "Never or after 2045" actually means after the beginning of 2045.