Güncel topluluk tahmini
2026 75.9%5 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
15
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
3 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis24 Haz 25 20:26 UTC1 Oca 29 23:59 UTC
Trendler
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Resolves to the first year where a model is released that: 1.
- Can be run locally on a reasonable consumer phone 2.
- Has comparable scores on most benchmarks to o3-mini (medium).
- I will judge 2 based on benchmarks like Codeforces scores, AIME math, GPQA-Diamond, etc, but will use discretion if it seems obvious some benchmarks have been compromised and that the AI is clearly inferior to o3-mini.
- It will not need to surpass or match o3-mini's performance on all of these, but it will need to do so on the majority.
- Again, some discretion will be used here.