What will US voter turnout be in the 2026 midterms? (UF Election Lab VEP turnout rate)
PolitikaOne-Off2026 ABD Ara SeçimleriABD SiyasetiSeçim1ay
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini47.0% to 48.9% 20.9%6 seçenek arasında lider
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Guncelligini yitirmis25 Eki 26 06:41 UTC30 Kas 26 23:59 UTC
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What share of eligible Americans will vote in the November 3, 2026 midterms?
- Resolution source: the national turnout rate for the voting-eligible population (VEP) published by the University of Florida Election Lab (Michael McDonald), election.lab.ufl.edu.
- I use the "total ballots counted" VEP rate if it is published, otherwise the highest-office VEP rate, as shown on the Election Lab's 2026 general election turnout page on November 30, 2026.
- If the Election Lab has not published a national 2026 VEP rate by November 30, I will wait for its first published figure (up to December 31, 2026).
- Ranges are inclusive at the lower end and use the figure exactly as published to one decimal: e.g. 49.0% resolves "49.0% to 50.9%", and 48.9% resolves "47.0% to 48.9%".
- Context: midterm turnout was about 50% in 2018 (the highest midterm in over a century) and about 46-47% in 2022.