What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months?
Sağlık ve TıpOne-Off10ay
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
26 Eki 2026 01:00 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahmini60-69% 25.6%7 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
14
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
10 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis15 Mar 24 21:29 UTC2 Eyl 27 06:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 24 months?
Manifold MarketsWill molecular jackhammers have at least 50% tumour-free efficacy in Phase 2 clinical trials?
Manifold MarketsHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketWill the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
KalshiHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
PolymarketWill a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?
KalshiKurallar
The 12 month phase 3 data indicates 75% vaccine efficacy of R21 in annual malaria sites in children at 12 months after the first dose was delivered.
- Phase 2b data at a 42 month timepoint showed 71% efficacy after four total doses (Abstract here, #6949).
- Resolves upon publication of peer-reviewed data from the R21 team at Oxford (expected to be before September 1st, 2026).
- Vaccine efficacy is defined as the primary endpoint for time to clinical malaria in seasonal sites, as defined in the paper linked above.
- 1Day Sooner has an R21 Status Report available here that may be useful.
- More malaria-related questions can be found on our Manifold account here.